Posts Tagged ‘ market sentiment

Market sentiment trading strategy

Market sentiment trading strategy

Last month NinjaTrader sponsored a market sentiment webinar with SentiTrade. It covered previously unpublished information on how we detect market sentiment tonality in news stories and use it to create a trading edge. If you missed this opportunity to see SentiTrade in action, you can now watch it as a video on NinjaTrader’ YouTube channel… Read more

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Market psychology in unchartered territory

Market psychology in unchartered territory

We are now entering unchartered market psychology territory. SentiTrade’s 38 moving average line has crossed the 200 average, signifying a predominately bullish market sentiment. At the same time we note increasingly high levels in SentiTrade’s sentiment volatility index (V-SQ). It is now well above the 85% level, and is normally a clear sign of Read more

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A dummy bear market

A dummy bear market

We’re currently seeing a similar situation to that of early 2008. The market sentiment and stock prices have recovered for the past few weeks. Since mid Dec. the DAX index has gained ca. 7% and in this time window, the SentiTrade Team made 2 important observations: Read more

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New low point in market sentiment

New low point in market sentiment

On Tues. last week (Nov. 22nd) the SentiTrade Quotient reached a new YTD low of 0,39, see below chart. At the same time the SentiTrade volatility index rose with 3% to above 87% so unfortunately, everything speaks for a continued race to the bottom. However… Read more

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Market Sentiment and Oil Price

Market Sentiment and Oil Price

Market Sentiment and Oil Price; A correlation between developments in SentiTrade’s market sentiment values and commodity prices has been established. An initial study looked at entry points based on the 38 / 200 moving averages in the Brent Future (BRN) vs. those of the SentiTrade Index. In the chart, SentiTrade’s “cross above” is marked with black squares, whereas the BRN 200 line is green and the 38 line in red. Read more

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Mind The Gap

Mind The Gap

Recently, we’ve looked into a new trading concept called “Mind The Gap”. The strategy looks at how the sentiment develops towards the end of a the day. We then use this data to anticipate the opening gap for the following day. Although it is well know that (very) bad news publish after market close, our data show days ending on a positive note to be followed by a positive opening. Read more

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Mr. Wouldhave and Mrs. Couldhave vs. SentiTrade

Mr. Wouldhave and Mrs. Couldhave vs. SentiTrade

That Mr. Wouldhave and Mrs. Couldhave are the most successful investors of all times, is hardly breaking news. That the 20 day SentiTrade average anticipated the current market downfall is however, breaking news.

The method behind SentiTrade’s market sentiment indicator, is simply to calculate the ratio between positive and negative news items. Our fully automated computational software takes care of the hard part, namely reading and assessing whether the news is bullish or bearish. Read more

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Market sentiment today; comparison to Lehman

Market sentiment today; comparison to Lehman

Over the last couple of days, we’ve compared the current SentiTrade’s values to those of the Lehman crisis in 2008. At the time of the Lehman collapse, our sentiment quotient (the ratio between positive and negative news items) had a value of 0,51 with a yearly average of 0,54. Read more

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Momentum strategies for SentiTrade

Momentum strategies for SentiTrade

Since last week the DAX lost about 700 points, same with the DJIA. Could SentiTrade predict that this was about to happen? Our commentary over the last weeks gave plenty of clues and we’re pleased to note that our fully automated momentum strategies followed through. They apply a combination of the concept previously discussed, namely high/low marks from the SentiTrade indicator (trigger points) and momentum calculations of how quickly the sentiment is changing. Read more

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Sentiment momentum as the fat lady sings

Sentiment momentum as the fat lady sings

Following our mention of sentiment “trigger points” last week, we received several questions on how SentiTrade identifies momentum in market psychology. Normally, trigger points refer to psychological price levels that will “trigger” certain behaviors. For example, if prices of gasoline suddenly rose to €2 per liter, it is reasonable to assume that driving patterns will change. The cost of driving traditional cars, may furthermore “trigger” an increase in sales of hybrid- and electric cars. Read more

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